Compared to last crop, this year’s crop should be smaller due to the drought and high summer temperature. Some packers estimate the average reduction could be up to 30%, and that pricing on raw materials should be up by 10-15%.
The final pricing will depend on the demand, as there is still quite a lot of inventory available, and even if the new production is reduced, the total supply should not be much less than last crop, so the new pricing should tend to rational, though higher than the current old crop pricing.
The start of production should be later than last crop, probably around October 20th, about 2 weeks later than last crop.
Buyers should be aware that some packers might be tempted to ship old crop as new crop by removing old can codes, so they should stick to reliable packers only to avoid potential problems (rusty, leaking and bloated cans, etc.)
Another point we should notice is that the mandarin oranges now seem to be the cheapest fruit available as compared to peaches, pears, apples and pineapples, so we can’t exclude the possibility that more and more demand come to mandarins and drive pricing to a higher level.