The following information is from some of our Thai Suppliers:
1) Raw material supply has started decreasing since in the Second Half of February 2013 onward. However, we found that some big packers still try to require raw material in excess of 500 MTONs/day while medium and small packers could get max. 200-300 MTONs/day.
2) According to high demand from big packers, it raised raw material price up to be 4.00-4.20 Baht/kg while medium and small packers can’t get large volume of raw material income because of higher price level with shortage of fruit ring No.1-2.
3) As you know very well that almost all Thai packers still face troublesome on new cost of production which is came from minimum wage hike (300 Baht/day) since January 1’st 2013 onward. This external factor will affect price of finished product such as 20 oz P/A SLs and PCs which will be increased at least USD 0.20 / ctn while other canned sizes will be increased more respectively.
4) Besides, Thai Baht currency is still getting stronger around Baht 29.00-29.50 against USD currency which is another external factor to affect on unit price higher than Quarter 4th’ 2012 that some of your clients had already concluded before end of last year or early period of Quarter 1st’ 2013.
5) As you can see that several Thai packers would like to propose their old stock with cheaper price to EU buyers (such as 20 oz SLS from Quarter 4th’ 2012, 20 oz PCS from latest summer crop). But they will face internal conflict with their pricing policy of sales performances with balance quantity before shut-down period of current winter crop by End March / Early April’ 2013.
6) Besides, current market price of PJC is also not activate and still raise up cost of other solid pack items after Quarter 1st’ 2013 to be higher. So it’s automatically that unit price of any canned Pineapple should be adjusted higher accordingly. But we heard that not only big packers but also some medium/small packers still release old stocks of solid pack items in any canned size with cheaper price in order to maintain their cash-flow in this moment; otherwise, they will suffer higher expense by keeping unsold stocks in their warehouses for longer period.
7) For your information, we heard that some EU importers still rush shipment calls of 30 oz 8 Slices from Indonesia. As they just faced dry season comes too early in this year which’s came from extremely dry climate (no rains) during August-September’ 2012. It will be not only affected to push new demand of this product type to some Thai packers, but also asking for temporary supplying with higher price level (approx. USD 22.00/ctn) because of less quantity of big fruit ring No.1 in Quarter 1st’ 2013.
8) According to the above explanation, we just got latest information from our purchasing team that fruit ring No.2 will be less in End March until Early May’ 2013 which is late period of winter crop and early period of summer crop. We may face shortage of raw material in ring No. 2, but receive more quantity of fruit ring No.3 that will be used for making either 20 oz 12 slices or 20 oz Chunk at that period.
9) For this reason, we’d like to wait for receiving further suggestion from our purchasing team and brokers (suppliers) whether they still search for raw material supply in fruit ring No. 2 with their best effort at that period (after finish production in all pending contracts of your regular buyers). If yes, we can continue to supply as usual, but price will be based on actual raw material price and other external factors at that time.
Our current raw material situation is quite the same. No big different from past few months. After increase raw material price to 4.20 Baht/kg, we got about 250 tons per day increased from 180 tons in previous month. And we are now meeting the minimum required quantity to run production.
For the fruit size, there is more small size fruit coming to the plant. The Choice grade fruit is less available so it effect on the order as well.
We think that the raw material situation will be like this till End of March to Early April’ 2013.
Some forecasts that this summer crop will be delayed. The peak period might come late and short, but the quantity should be the same.
Summer crop is not come yet. We expect that summer will come in 2 weeks, let’s say Mid of April’ 2013. For summer crop, it will have enough supply. The crop will be ended around June’ 2013.
By July’ 2013 onwards, we will have less supply.
Supply in this summer season will not be a good due to drought in Prajuapkirikhan Province (South of Thailand). Fruit price will be around 4.00-4.50 Baht per kg.